author(s)
Jose Lopez-Collado, Catalino Jorge Lopez-Collado

abstract
The objective of this study was to estimate the potential distribution of Rhyssomatus nigerrimus in Mexico. Point presence data and bioclimatic data were used to construct the model. Kernel density distributions were estimated for the bioclimatic layers to represent the response function and to combine them. The vulnerability of municipalities planted with soybean was computed as a function of suitability and revenue. Results showed a medium to high potential occurrence in the northern states of Mexico: Tamaulipas, North of Veracruz in the Gulf of Mexico and Sonora and Sinaloa in the Pacific Ocean. Low suitability occurred in the northern and central areas of the country. The Area under the Curve was 0.805 and the True Skill Statistics was 0.625, both indices supporting the validity of the model. Soybean-planted municipalities in Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Chiapas and Campeche were estimated to have a medium to high vulnerability to pest occurrence.